How will smaller political parties impact Maharashtra assembly polls?

MUMBAI: The upcoming assembly election in Maharashtra is likely to be a complex one. Six prominent parties – from the ruling Mahayuti and opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi — will slug it out, alongside smaller outfits and independent politicians who will enter the fray. Together, over two dozen parties will enter the electoral landscape – a first in the state.
Key contenders have arisen from a collective disenchantment with the ruling coalition on issues such as Maratha reservation, the agrarian crisis and misgovernance – together, they likely to split the votes between the two alliances.
The biggest threat to MVA will come from Maratha activist Manoj Jarange-Patil, who has announced his intention to field candidates if the government fails to grant reservation in education and jobs to the Marathas soon. “The Lok Sabha poll results have created a fear about Marathas, which is important for me. If the state government does not give the reservation immediately, we will field candidates on all 288 seats,” Jarange-Patil said in July. The Maratha activist’s push for reservation under the Other Backward Class (OBC) quota has brought the community – which comprises 32 per cent of the population – together.
Expressing concern, a senior Congress leader said, “The Maratha community’s anger against the ruling parties was visible in the Lok Sabha poll results, but if Jarange-Patil chooses to field candidates he will certainly create trouble for the MVA more than the ruling coalition.”
The ruling Mahayuti won only 17 out of 48 seats, while the MVA secured 30 seats; but Jarange-Patil’s resolve could shift the poll dynamics significantly.
The Maratha vote is also likely to be fragmented by Sambhajiraje Chhatrapati’s Swarajya outfit. The descendant of Maratha king Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj plans to make Maratha reservation a central issue, and has invited Jarange-Patil to collaborate to consolidate the votes.
On the other hand, Prakash Ambedkar, head of the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), is positioning himself as a key player, aiming to unite OBCs, who claim to be the largest demographic group in the state. Ambedkar is looking to rally support with his ‘Aarakshan Bachao Yatra’. “Give us power. We have created a formula that will give reservation to OBC and Maratha communities,” Ambedkar stated in Akola on August 26. Although his party failed to win a single seat in the last assembly elections, his present threat is aimed to potentially impact the ruling coalition led by BJP, which has traditionally relied on OBC votes.
In the Lok Sabha elections 2019, his party played an instrumental role in defeating Congress and NCP candidates on at least eight seats.
Despite his previous support for the BJP in Lok Sabha elections, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray is now campaigning independently and has announced that his party will contest 200-225 seats. “I gave unconditional support to prime minister Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha but I never made any promises about the Vidhan Sabha,” Thackeray said last month.
“This is likely to hurt his cousin Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT). However, MNS’s influence has been in the urban parts only, where it may win voters,” observed Mrudul Nile, professor in the department of civics and politics, University of Mumbai.
In the last elections, MNS could win only one seat — Kalyan (rural).
MVA’s prospects in Muslim-dominated areas may suffer as Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) plans to contest over 52 seats. The party, however, has expressed interest in an alliance with the MVA. “We are keen to join hands with the MVA but if they choose not to then we will contest on our own,” said Imtiyaz Jaleel, state AIMIM president.
MVA may be further threatened from other smaller parties that are considering to unite under a third front — Swabhimani Paksha chief Raju Shetti has held meetings with farmers’ leader Wamanrao Chatap; Shankar Dhondage, who was earlier the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) chief and has now formed his own outfit Maharashtra Rajya Samiti; as also Jaleel to come under one umbrella. Swambhimani Paksha and CPI (M) have one MLA each from Morshi (Amravati) and Dahanu respectively, while this will be BRS’s maiden contest.
The Prahar Janashakti Party (PJP), led by Bachchu Kadu, has announced its independent candidacy which has potential to disrupt the electoral balance in Vidarbha. Similarly, the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP) will contest all 288 seats, led by Mahadev Jankar, who is advocating enhanced reservation for the Dhangar community, which he belongs to. “We have decided to increase our party’s footprint in the political landscape of Maharashtra and thus have decided to fight elections on all seats,” Jankar told HT. The party has one MLA in the Gangankhed assembly constituency, Parbhani district.
However, with so many players in the fray, political analyst Abhay Deshpande noted, “Except Jarange-Patil, Ambedkar and AIMIM, no other party will be able to leave a mark state-wide. Others will divide the anti-establishment votes and MVA will face the brunt.”
Among other solo players is the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led by Arvind Kejriwal, which will contest on 36 seats in Mumbai and is considering an alliance with Jarange-Patil. Farmers’ leader Ravikant Tupkar’s Maharashtra Krantikari Aghadi (MKA) will target 25 seats and is expected to win over farmers, who are unhappy with the government’s agrarian policies. This will influence parts of Vidarbha. Jyoti Mete, widow of the late Maratha leader Vinayak Mete, will contest five seats under the Shiv Sangram outfit.
Like Deshpande, Nile is also of the view that smaller parties are unlikely to make a significant impact, as the narratives have already been set by the two major coalitions — Mahayuti and MVA. “The ruling parties are focusing on the work done so far by putting forward populist schemes such as ‘Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana’ whereas opposition is focusing on misgovernance, corruption and law and order issues to corner the government by bringing up incidents such as Badlapur molestation case,” he said.